See what changed the result

Explore three illustrative experiments. Each one ends with a decision you can use.

Illustrative simulated example

Simulated panel: 25 profiles4 example responses shown

We tested 3 controlled changes

Proof moved the signal most.

+12 points vs original

Buying signal 64 vs 52 · 10 of 12 profiles favored it

The refillable format is the draw; all-day performance is the hesitation.

What moved the signal

Directional stability across 12 simulated profiles

  1. Wear-test proofWinnerRecommended experiment decision
    64+12
  2. Freshness-first framing
    58+6
  3. What if: trial sizeWhat if

    What if a trial size were offered?

    56+4
  4. Original
    52baseline

What to do now

Run the current page against a page that leads with the wear-test proof.

Keep the product and price. Make the proof easier to see.

Built from survey-style simulated responses. Use it to choose your next real test.

View tested idea

Refillable skincare with visible freshness and performance proof.

Category: Personal care. Price: $14.99. What's new: Refillable, low-waste packaging with a natural scent profile..

Buying signal

The buying signal is the share of the simulated response distribution in the two higher survey options.

Original response spread

Definitely no
7%
Probably no
15%
Not sure
20%
Probably yes
33%
Definitely yes
25%
Response distribution
Definitely no
7%
Probably no
15%
Not sure
20%
Probably yes
33%
Definitely yes
25%
Demographic patterns

Groups with fewer than 10 profiles are shown qualitatively to avoid false precision.

Age

18-244 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
25-346 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
35-445 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean
45-545 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean
55-645 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean

Income

$150k+4 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
$100k-$150k5 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
$50k-$75k6 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
$75k-$100k5 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean
$25k-$50k5 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean

Gender

female13 profiles · 62% estimated share
male12 profiles · 52% estimated share

Region

west7 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
northeast6 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
south6 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean
midwest6 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean

Ethnicity

asian4 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
hispanic5 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
black5 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Higher lean
white8 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean
other3 profiles · Small subgroup, directional only · Similar lean
Evidence behind the themes

Reasons to buy

Refillable design reduces waste

The reusable aluminum case makes the sustainability benefit easy to understand.

I like the idea of a refillable deodorant because it feels more sustainable than the usual plastic sticks. The cedar scent sounds refined, but I would want to smell it first.
I'm drawn to the sustainability angle. At $14.99 it's reasonable for a refillable, though I'd want a trial size first.

Premium materials feel worth considering

The case and cedar scent give the offer a more elevated feel than a standard stick.

The aluminum case feels elevated, but I'd need to know how well it works compared to what I use now.

Concerns

Scent is hard to judge before buying

People want a lower-risk way to learn whether cedar works for everyday use.

I like the idea of a refillable deodorant because it feels more sustainable than the usual plastic sticks. The cedar scent sounds refined, but I would want to smell it first.
Cedar scent is a bold choice. I appreciate gender-neutral personal care but worry it might smell too woody for everyday use.

Performance still needs proof

The sustainable format is appealing, but all-day effectiveness remains uncertain.

The aluminum case feels elevated, but I'd need to know how well it works compared to what I use now.
Example responses

I like the idea of a refillable deodorant because it feels more sustainable than the usual plastic sticks. The cedar scent sounds refined, but I would want to smell it first.

Age 25-34 · Female · $50k-$75k · West · Hispanic

This sounds premium and eco-friendly, which is appealing. If the refills are easy to order and not too pricey, I'd consider switching.

Age 35-44 · Male · $75k-$100k · South · White

The aluminum case feels elevated, but I'd need to know how well it works compared to what I use now.

Age 55-64 · Female · $100k-$150k · Midwest · Black

I'm drawn to the sustainability angle. At $14.99 it's reasonable for a refillable, though I'd want a trial size first.

Age 18-24 · Female · $25k-$50k · Northeast · Asian

Method notes

We generate survey-style reactions from simulated demographic profiles, then summarize how those responses lean. The result is directional and should guide the next real-world test.

Agreement level

1.180

Lower = more agreement

Group spread

0.140

Lower = more consistent

Panel size

25 profiles

Panel mix

Age, gender, income, region, ethnicity

Scoring guide

default

Scoring model

Standard text model

The scoring approach was evaluated against human survey responses in an arXiv preprint. Read the arXiv preprint.

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